Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,778
2 New Jersey 19,839
3 Rhode Island 16,276
4 Massachusetts 16,089
5 Louisiana 15,509
6 Arizona 15,494
7 District of Columbia 15,131
8 Connecticut 13,241
9 Delaware 12,868
10 Illinois 12,009
11 Maryland 11,915
12 Mississippi 11,286
13 Florida 10,834
14 Nebraska 10,679
15 Iowa 10,559
16 Alabama 10,028
17 South Carolina 9,845
18 Georgia 9,295
19 Arkansas 8,632
20 Utah 8,618
21 South Dakota 8,292
22 Tennessee 8,277
23 Texas 8,277
24 Nevada 8,134
25 Virginia 7,965
26 California 7,681
27 Pennsylvania 7,626
28 North Carolina 7,594
29 Indiana 7,550
30 Michigan 7,534
31 Minnesota 7,128
32 New Mexico 6,796
33 Wisconsin 6,416
34 Kansas 6,189
35 Colorado 6,182
36 Idaho 5,370
37 North Dakota 5,346
38 Washington 5,301
39 Ohio 5,246
40 Oklahoma 4,674
41 Missouri 4,448
42 New Hampshire 4,392
43 Kentucky 4,157
44 Wyoming 3,065
45 Puerto Rico 2,774
46 Oregon 2,654
47 Maine 2,593
48 West Virginia 2,134
49 Alaska 2,079
50 Vermont 2,038
51 Montana 1,371
52 Hawaii 785

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 514
2 Florida 407
3 Louisiana 406
4 Texas 352
5 Alabama 292
6 South Carolina 279
7 Mississippi 261
8 Idaho 256
9 Tennessee 245
10 Georgia 241
11 Nevada 229
12 California 216
13 Utah 205
14 Arkansas 198
15 Oklahoma 179
16 Iowa 163
17 North Carolina 149
18 Missouri 133
19 New Mexico 118
20 Wisconsin 116
21 Kansas 108
22 Nebraska 104
23 Ohio 96
24 Minnesota 94
25 North Dakota 94
26 South Dakota 87
27 Maryland 84
28 Kentucky 82
29 Delaware 81
30 Washington 81
31 Rhode Island 79
32 District of Columbia 77
33 Colorado 74
34 Virginia 73
35 Illinois 72
36 West Virginia 71
37 Montana 67
38 Pennsylvania 63
39 Indiana 62
40 Oregon 62
41 Michigan 61
42 Wyoming 57
43 Alaska 54
44 Massachusetts 36
45 New York 32
46 New Jersey 28
47 Puerto Rico 28
48 Hawaii 23
49 Connecticut 21
50 Maine 15
51 New Hampshire 14
52 Vermont 11

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,739
2 New York 1,643
3 Connecticut 1,219
4 Massachusetts 1,199
5 Rhode Island 919
6 District of Columbia 804
7 Louisiana 721
8 Michigan 628
9 Illinois 578
10 Maryland 543
11 Pennsylvania 538
12 Delaware 530
13 Indiana 406
14 Mississippi 404
15 Colorado 296
16 New Hampshire 284
17 Arizona 281
18 Georgia 271
19 Minnesota 270
20 Ohio 257
21 New Mexico 254
22 Iowa 235
23 Virginia 226
24 Alabama 217
25 Florida 186
26 Nevada 186
27 Washington 185
28 Missouri 178
29 South Carolina 175
30 California 172
31 Nebraska 151
32 Kentucky 143
33 North Carolina 141
34 Wisconsin 141
35 North Dakota 116
36 South Dakota 114
37 Texas 104
38 Oklahoma 103
39 Arkansas 102
40 Tennessee 102
41 Kansas 100
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 82
44 Utah 63
45 Idaho 56
46 Oregon 55
47 West Virginia 53
48 Puerto Rico 49
49 Wyoming 36
50 Montana 23
51 Alaska 20
52 Hawaii 13

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 10
2 Arizona 9
3 New Jersey 8
4 South Carolina 5
5 Alabama 4
6 Louisiana 4
7 Nevada 4
8 Rhode Island 4
9 California 3
10 District of Columbia 3
11 Florida 3
12 Massachusetts 3
13 Texas 3
14 Virginia 3
15 Illinois 2
16 Indiana 2
17 Maryland 2
18 New Mexico 2
19 North Carolina 2
20 Ohio 2
21 Pennsylvania 2
22 Tennessee 2
23 Arkansas 1
24 Delaware 1
25 Georgia 1
26 Idaho 1
27 Iowa 1
28 Kentucky 1
29 Michigan 1
30 Minnesota 1
31 Missouri 1
32 Nebraska 1
33 New Hampshire 1
34 New York 1
35 Oregon 1
36 South Dakota 1
37 Utah 1
38 Washington 1
39 Alaska 0
40 Colorado 0
41 Connecticut 0
42 Hawaii 0
43 Kansas 0
44 Maine 0
45 Montana 0
46 North Dakota 0
47 Oklahoma 0
48 Puerto Rico 0
49 Vermont 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 133,375 1 99
Lake Tennessee 99,344 2 99
Lee Arkansas 92,243 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 90,133 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 88,022 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 19,362 148 95
Richland South Carolina 10,751 451 85
Orange California 6,955 803 74
York South Carolina 5,997 955 69
Pierce Washington 3,719 1468 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,282 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,806 5 99
Richland South Carolina 224 675 78
Davidson Tennessee 199 734 76
Pierce Washington 123 997 68
Orange California 118 1027 67
York South Carolina 43 1635 47

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons